The last game in the NBA Play-In Tournament for the final spot in the Western Conference bracket comes down to the Warriors and Suns.
The Warriors pulled off a stunning comeback to keep themselves alive for a playoff spot, while the Suns blew a lead at home to force themselves into a must-win game.
The Suns are 3.5-point favorites at home, facing all the pressure to perform in an elimination game against a surging Warriors team.
Warriors vs. Suns prediction, best bet
The Warriors just won’t go down easy, and you have to give credit to their most experienced players — Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis — for grinding out their best win of the season. Three of those players were on minutes limits for an elimination game, but accounted for 69 of their 126 points, including 11 of their 19 made 3s.
Warriors head coach Steve Kerr picked the right spots to get what he could out of them, and heaped a ton of praise on his team after the game.
“For one night, we’re us, we’re champions again,” Kerr said after the game. “I know that may sound crazy to everybody out there, it’s a play-in game. I don’t care.”
There’s still plenty of work ahead for the Warriors, however, with a tough Suns team in desperation mode on tap.
The Suns were minutes away from punching their ticket to the playoffs and held an eight-point lead over the Trail Blazers with 3:30 left in the fourth quarter. The Blazers ended the game on a 17-5 run to stun the Suns in their own building.
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The Warriors have been so injured this season that there aren’t really any concrete numbers to lean on in terms of what to expect. Weirdly, all we can say for certain about this team is that they have four players who know how to approach must-win games.
Golden State was able to find just enough offense with Curry off the floor against the Clippers. Whether it was Gui Santos getting inside or Porzingis and Horford capitalizing on ball movement to hit open 3-pointers, the Warriors stayed afloat long enough to let Curry cook in the fourth.
The Suns faltered late because Devin Booker couldn’t provide enough in the fourth quarter to bail them out when it was most necessary. This also hasn’t been a good spot to back the Suns this season: when they were home favorites, they were 15-9 straight up but just 11-13 against the spread.
The Warriors will push the Suns to the brink in the fourth and keep this one within one possession.
The Pick: Warriors +3.5 (-110, bet365)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
