Two of the best teams in the NHL this season will meet in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
It may not be fair that either the Dallas Stars, who finished with the third-best record in the NHL this season, or the Minnesota Wild, who ranked seventh, will crash out of the tournament after this best-of-seven series, but that’s the reality of the league’s current playoff format.
The Stars have home-ice advantage and finished eight points ahead of the Wild, but the betting market is pricing this one as a coin flip, with Dallas sitting at -118 to advance at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Is that the right approach?
Stars vs. Wild Game 1 odds, prediction
The most important note for handicapping this series is to talk about the injuries in Dallas. Miro Heiskanen, the team’s engine and No. 1 defenseman, is questionable for Saturday’s curtain-raiser, and Roope Hintz will miss at least the first two games of this best-of-7 series.
For most teams, that kind of news at the start of the playoffs would be a death sentence against an opponent like Minnesota, but the Stars have the depth to survive. Plus, Dallas has been dealing with injuries all season. Mikko Rantanen, Jamie Benn, Nils Lundqvist, Tyler Seguin, Hintz, and Heiskanen have all missed considerable time in 2025-26, and Dallas still managed to put up 112 points.
The Stars are able to thrive through adversity for several reasons. They are deep, they’ve got an abundance of star power, a strong goaltending tandem, and they’re terrific on special teams. There aren’t too many holes you can poke here.
Minnesota also has plenty going for it, but the Wild are lacking in two key areas when compared to the Stars. The Wild don’t have the caliber of depth down the middle of the ice, even with Hintz on the shelf, and Dallas also packs more scoring punch throughout its lineup.
The Stars have three elite scorers at the top of their lineup with Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, and Mikko Rantanen, but that group is backed up by several productive role-players, and one potential wild card in Mavrik Bourque, who just put the finishing touches on a 20-goal campaign in his sophomore season.
Betting on the NHL?
The Wild do have the luxury of having a handful of game-breakers in Kirill Kaprizov, Quinn Hughes, and Matt Boldy, but if Dallas is able to keep that trio contained, it’s hard to see how Minnesota gets the better of the Stars in this series.
The tale of the tape features a lot of washes. The goaltending is not a concern for either team. They both have elite power plays and decent penalty kills. And neither one of them generates a ton of volume at 5-on-5.
That said, there is one piece of this puzzle that should help us find an edge. The Stars were one of the best defensive teams in the NHL this season, limiting opponents to just 2.48 expected goals (sixth overall) and 10.3 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (sixth) at 5-on-5.
Minnesota’s defensive numbers aren’t poor, but the Wild did prefer to play a more open style of hockey, gambling that they would come out on top if they traded chances with their opponents.
That will be a tricky feat to pull off against the Stars, a well-buttoned outfit that has no problem packing it in and waiting for their chance to strike.
The injuries are a bummer, but Dallas should still be a bigger favorite to win this best-of-seven.
The Play: Dallas Stars to win the series (-118, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
