The Utah Mammoth is going to be a trendy underdog pick in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Not only does Utah have the novelty of this being its first-ever appearance in the postseason going for it, but the Mammoth tick plenty of other boxes that punters look for in a dark horse. They’re fast, dynamic, and create plenty of quality scoring chances.
The only problem is that they are running into the Vegas Golden Knights, arguably the best defensive team in the Western Conference, in Round 1.
Vegas is a -170 favorite to win the series, and it is -152 to win Game 1 on Sunday night.
Mammoth vs. Golden Knights odds, prediction
The Golden Knights had a weird season. Vegas started hot, took its foot off the pedal, and struggled to regain its form down the stretch. That led to a surprising coaching switch late in the campaign, but the move paid immediate dividends as John Tortorella led the Knights to a 7-0-1 record in his eight games behind the bench.
It should be noted that Tortorella benefited from an easy schedule since taking over in Vegas, but it’s hard to deny that the team looks sparked with a new voice in their ear.
What’s especially encouraging for Vegas is that its most glaring weakness, the play of goaltender Carter Hart, has started to trend in the right direction at the exact right time.
And Vegas is so good in its own zone that Hart doesn’t need to stand on his head to get the team over the line against Utah. If he’s just average, the Knights will stand a chance, especially since Utah’s goaltending situation is just as much of a question mark.
Betting on the NHL?
Outside of Vejmelka outplaying Hart, the Mammoth will also need to get this series on their terms if they want to pull the upset. Utah grades out as a slightly above-average defensive outfit, but its strength is up front with dynamic playmakers like Logan Cooley and Clayton Keller, plus sharp-shooter Dylan Guenther.
For those stars to have an impact, the Mammoth will need to get Vegas to open up and engage in a back-and-forth style. I just don’t see that happening with a team that was so disciplined in its own zone all season. The Knights led the NHL in expected goals against and high-danger chances conceded at 5-on-5, which shouldn’t be a shocker given the personnel in Sin City.
Not only does Vegas boast a deep blueline, but forwards Mitch Marner and Mark Stone are regarded as two of the best defensive minds in the entire sport.
Perhaps Utah can blitz Vegas and pull the upset, but I’d need a bigger number to go against the experienced, defensively savvy Knights in a best-of-7.
And if you’re looking for a play with more upside, have a good look at Vegas to pull off the sweep at 12/1.
The Play: Vegas moneyline (-152) | Vegas to sweep the series (12/1, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
