Shinnecock Hills embodies what U.S. Open conditions are all about: merciless frustration.
It’s known for its narrow fairways, creeping fescue, coastal winds and firm greens. The players who succeed there of course bring elite ball-striking and approach play, but it’s the right temperament that ultimately earns the hardware.
There is a massive 156-player field featuring a mix of Tour pros, regional qualifiers and amateurs, often creating surprising early-round leaderboards. So when betting on the first-round leader market, the ultra long-shot value is everywhere.
The last time Shinnecock hosted the U.S. Open in 2018, the first round ended in a four-way tie at a 1-under 69.
If this opening round is any bit the same, it’s all about survival on Thursday.
2026 U.S. Open first round leader picks
Tommy Fleetwood (30/1 , FanDuel)
The ”Fairway Jesus” always seems to hang around in majors, and he has a lot of momentum heading into this one. I picked Fleetwood to win the Masters and a big push on Moving Day vaulted him into contention.
His sluggish start to the season has been overshadowed by a T-5 finish at the Truist Championship, T-4 at the Memorial and T-11 at the RBC Canadian Open — his last three non-major starts.
Fleetwood has long been a standout player in the U.S. Open. He posted a fourth-place finish in 2017 at Erin Hills and followed that as the runner-up at Shinnecock the following year, firing a sensational seven-under 63 in his final round to fall one stroke short of Brooks Koepka. In 2023, he carded his fifth top-five finish in the tournament at Los Angeles Country Club.
The Englishman ranks fifth overall on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gaines: Tee-to-Green and seventh overall, but perhaps the most important number for Shinnecock is his second overall status in scrambling from the rough.
Russell Henley (55/1, FanDuel)
If we’re using the 2018 U.S. Open as any litmus test here, Russell Henley was one of those first-round leaders.
He’s made the cut in four of his last five U.S. Opens, has back-to-back T-10 finishes at The Open and has finished amongst the top-five in two of his past four Masters starts. That includes this season, when he earned a T3 at the Masters and is now fresh off a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
But setting history aside, Henley is the best fairway finder on the PGA Tour, leading all players in driving accuracy percentage. That will pay dividends since Shinnecock places a premium on finding the fairway as opposed to simply hitting bombs.
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And to boot, the USGA restored Shinnecock to its original 1931 William Flynn design, featuring slightly wider fairways than we’ve seen in the past.
If Thursday plays firm and windy, this acumen to set up advantageous approach angles could be the biggest separator from the field.
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
