Lionel Messi and Argentina survived a scare from Cape Verde to start the knockout rounds, escaping with a 3-2 win in extra time.
La Selección was in firm control of the match, with Messi striking first in the 29th minute, but Deroy Duarte returned the favor near the 60-minute mark. The match was level at 1-1 after 90 minutes, and then one of the most memorable extra-time sessions in World Cup history unfolded.
Lisandro Martinez and Sydney Lopes Cabral scored equalizers eight minutes apart, before an own goal by Diney Borges in the 111th minute helped Argentina avoid a massive upset.
The reigning Cup champions must now take on AFCON representative Egypt and Mohamed Salah, who outdueled Australia in penalties to punch their ticket into the Round of 16.
Argentina is a decisive -600 favorite to qualify for the next round, while carrying -275 moneyline odds to win inside of 90 minutes on BetMGM.
Argentina vs. Egypt World Cup prediction, best bets
Salah leads Egypt’s attack, which finished second in Group H with draws against Belgium and Iran along with a win over New Zealand. It’s their first appearance in the final 16 since 1934.
Ranked 24th in the latest FIFA rankings, the Pharaohs must play tough for 90 minutes, much like Cape Verde’s resilient effort against the Argentines, in order to pull off a miracle.
The issue with Egypt is that its attack often relies heavily on transition play and counters. In four tournament games, they’ve generated only 5.1 expected goals, with most of that production coming from a 3-1 win against New Zealand.
There also isn’t a true strategy to contain a red-hot Messi.
In a highly competitive Golden Boot race, he is now tied with Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland, each with seven goals apiece. It’s evident that the 39-year-old continues to perform at a high level, as he set another World Cup record by scoring in his seventh straight tournament match.
The Argentines average 2.8 goals per match, tied with France for the most among teams still alive.
Lautaro Martínez and Julian Alvarez, who have been relatively quiet and have been playing a supporting role to the goal-scoring machine, should also see increased opportunity.
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I expect Messi to strike again, given that Egypt has conceded 5.4 xG in the tournament and has yet to keep a clean sheet.
If Argentina maintains possession and scores early, Egypt will be put in a position to play catch-up, which favors the defending tournament winners.
The Play: Argentina -1.5 (+114, FanDuel) | Messi to score (-150, BetMGM)
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