President Donald Trump had an extraordinary first year in his second term in office. The question is whether he can turn the economy around in time to keep control of Congress.
It has not been an easy year. As the president himself noted in the White House briefing room on Tuesday, he came to office just days after the Los Angeles fires — and he rushed in to help.
Trump forced local officials to open up burned lots to residents, and pushed a faster schedule for clearing debris than anyone thought possible. But his relationship with California Gov. Gavin Newsom “went astray,” he said, which has held back rebuilding and federal funding.
That risks becoming the story of Trump’s second term: Incredible energy, stifled by opposition.
Trump’s most significant achievement has been to seal the border to illegal migration. He showed that it was lack of will, not lack of “immigration reform,” that held back enforcement.
There is no doubt that the aggressive tactics of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have been controversial. Sometimes ICE has swept up non-violent migrants or even people trying to correct their immigration status. That has alienated some of the president’s Latino supporters, and it has given Democrats something to rally around — though, as usual, they have overplayed their hand by mobilizing mobs against law enforcement and even churches.
ICE is doing an essential job — and, arguably, helping local law enforcement clamp down on crime, which is falling everywhere. Fentanyl deaths are also plummeting, thanks in part to ICE.
Trump has to find a balance and lead Congress to pass a more sensible immigration system.
On foreign policy, Trump has had the most successful year of any president in American history. The president measures his achievement by counting the number of wars he stopped or ended — a record truly worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize, which the winner gave to him last week.
What is even more significant is the way Trump reestablished America’s military dominance with a lightning strike on Iran’s nuclear sites. In doing so, he sent a warning to China on Taiwan.
But the war between Russia and Ukraine continues to rage. And Trump’s gambit to control Greenland — not a high priority for many Americans — holds risks for the NATO alliance.
The economy presents a mixed picture. Trump brought inflation under control, and restored rapid economic growth. The “One Big Beautiful Bill” includes tax cuts and reforms that will bring relief to households and stimulate investment. The Trump administration is also taking artificial intelligence (AI) seriously, including the expansion of energy needed to dominate AI.
However, there is still a hangover from the Biden years. Prices have stabilized, but at high levels. And high interest rates have made housing more expensive, as well as credit card debt.
Trump’s tariffs have not led to the inflation many feared, but they hurt some small businesses, as well as farmers hit by retaliatory tariffs. They have not boosted manufacturing jobs, either.
The fact that an extreme socialist won the race for New York City mayor is a sign of how potent the issue of “affordability” is. Trump’s political future may depend on progress on that front.
The deficit is another challenge. Many of the cuts made by Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, have already been undone. The country’s entitlement system — including the ailing Obamacare program — cannot be ignored for much longer. Trump and his party declined to extend Obamacare subsidies, but that may be politically costly in November.
The president needs to start a more ambitious conversation about cutting spending, and start providing Americans with ideas that can bring down the deficit without hurting entitlements.
On cultural issues, Trump has reversed much of the “woke” rot that set in under the previous administration. He has defended women’s sports against unfair competition from transgender men; he has reinforced the role of faith in public life; he has targeted antisemitism on campus.
Crucially, the Trump administration has been aggressive about removing the racial madness of “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion” — not just in government, but also in education and the private sector. Today’s America is much closer to the non-racial ideal of Martin Luther King Jr.
Meanwhile, the administration has defended real civil rights — such as religious liberty and free speech. Trump has also pardoned and commuted the sentences of people unjustly persecuted by the previous administration in its shocking politicization of justice. But the president needs to be careful not to overcorrect. He should not politicize justice in the opposite direction.
Our national divisions keep widening. When a crazed assassin murdered conservative youth leader Charlie Kirk as he addressed a crowd of college students, Americans should have come together. Instead, we are moving further and further apart. That is largely due to Democrats’ refusal to accept the legitimacy of the Trump presidency — again — but it is also a real threat to Trump’s success. He is president of all the people — something he needs to remember.
A year into the second Trump presidency, Democrats believe they have momentum. They are hoping to take control of the House of Representatives and to block Trump policies, to launch crippling investigations of his departments, and even to have another run at impeachment.
Already, voters can see what that means, in cities and states that Democrats won in the off-year elections. Whether radical or moderate, Democrats are united in their effort to raise taxes, hike energy costs, restore costly regulations, and gerrymander districts to win future elections.
Trump and the Republicans need to warn voters about what a return to divided government would mean with Democrats committed to a far-left agenda. More importantly, the president needs to use his last year of guaranteed unified government to tackle the toughest challenges facing the American people.
If he does, he may see a truly historic win in the midterm elections.
Joel Pollak is the Opinion Editor of the California Post, launching January 26.
