The 2026 World Cup will be the biggest sporting event in human history. For the first time ever, the tournament features a field of 48 teams, and it will be played across three countries.
The expanded field brings with it a new format, with the 48 countries split into 12 groups of four. The top two teams from each quartet and the eight best third-place teams will advance to the Round of 32. From there, it will be single-elimination until a champion is crowned.
Spain (+450), France (+500), and England (+600) lead the way at bet365 Sportsbook, with Brazil (+800), Argentina (+800), Portugal (+900), and Germany (14/1) rounding out the top six.
It’s very likely that the World Cup is won by one of those teams, as we’ve only seen two tournaments (Italy in 1982 and 2006) won by a team with double-digit odds, and those iterations of the Azzuri were far from long shots at 18/1 and 11/1, respectively.
That said, we almost always see at least one long shot make a deep run at the tournament, and we’ll keep that in mind as we select our favorite bets across a variety of markets for the 2026 World Cup.
Best bets to win the World Cup
Favorites: Brazil (+900, Caesars)
It’s hard to remember Brazil entering a World Cup with such low expectations. Seleção are still among the favorites, but they’re projected behind Spain, France, and England at every sportsbook, and are essentially on level-pegging with Argentina and Portugal at a majority of bookmakers.
For a country that is used to being the chalk on the biggest stage, it’s an unfamiliar feeling. It’s also a blessing.
There are a couple of reasons for the skepticism.
First and foremost, it’s been 24 years since Brazil won a World Cup, and they bowed out in the quarterfinals in the past two iterations. Their last appearance in a semifinal came in 2014 when they lost 7-1 to Germany.
The other reason is that their roster, as talented as it is, doesn’t have the same star power that we’re used to from the five-time champions. Once again, that feels like lit could be a good thing.
Even though Brazil doesn’t have a transcendent attacking star like Pelé, Ronaldo, or Ronaldinho (Neymar is in the roster but expected to play a diminished role), they project to be an elite defensive unit, and they’ve got a well-balanced attack.
Vinicius Junior, Raphinha, Endrick, and Igor Thiago all provide something different up front, while Gabriel, perhaps the best center-back in the world, will take command of the backline. Brazil has two all-world goalkeepers, too.
But the most important member of Canarinho is the manager, Carlo Ancelotti. Although he’s not regarded as a tactical mastermind, Ancelotti is one of the most successful coaches in the history of the sport for his ability to adapt his game plan and get his teams to buy into his philosophy. “Don Carlo” has also proven to be a master of survive-and-advance soccer, as he’s won the Champions League a record five times.
He is the exact type of manager that Brazil needs for this moment.
Sleeper: Belgium (40/1, DraftKings)
Belgium is a classic post-hype sleeper.
It’s been eight years since the country’s “Golden Generation” made it to the semifinals at Russia 2018, but this experienced squad still has plenty of left in the tank.
The team still flows through 34-year-old talisman Kevin De Bruyne in the middle of the park, but the former Man City superstar has a wealth of dangerous players surrounding him, most notably Jeremy Doku.
Known as the best 1-on-1 dribbler on the planet, Doku is a threat to get through the lines anytime he has possession, and he also demands a ton of attention from opposing defenses, which opens up space for De Bruyne, Leandro Trossard, and Youri Tielemans to operate.
Romelu Lukaku is well past his salad days as a week-in and week-out striker in a top league, but he can have an impact in the short format of a tournament, and he will have support from youngster Matias Fernandez-Pardo, who burst onto the scene with Lille this season.
Belgium’s defense will be noted as its weak point, but the Red Devils do have one of the world’s premier goalkeepers in Thibault Courtois.
Plus, if all things go as planned, Rudi Garcia’s team should be set up to score bushels of goals, which should alleviate some of the pressure on the backline, at least in the early part of the tournament.
It’s also crucial to note that Belgium was drawn into an easy group with Egypt, New Zealand, and Iran, and they wouldn’t face a real powerhouse until the quarterfinals if they top the group, as expected.
Belgium is unfancied this year because they’ve burned backers at the past two European Championships and in Qatar. Don’t let that fool you. This is a great buy-low opportunity.
Long shot: Switzerland (70/1, FanDuel)
Some teams are built to be hard to stop. Others are built to be hard to beat. Oftentimes, it’s the latter that pays dividends at international tournaments. That’s Switzerland’s hope, anyway.
An experienced side guided by one of the longest-tenured managers in the sport, Murat Yakin, everybody on Rossocrociati knows their role and understands the mission.
The chemistry and cohesion of this squad make up for a lack of star power, but the latter shouldn’t deter you from being a believer. And all you need to do is look at the results.
A regular at the World Cup, Switzerland has made it to the knockout stage in each of the last three tournaments, and has made it to the quarterfinals at the past two Euros. It would be a shock if the Rossocrociati stumble in 2026, as they are the favorites to win Group B ahead of Canada, Qatar, and Bosnia.
Switzerland’s upside was on full display at Euro 2024 when they went unbeaten in regulation, and nearly eliminated England in the quarterfinals.
Not including friendlies, Switzerland has lost just one match inside 90 minutes in the last four years, and that defeat came in a dead-rubber game after the Swiss had already qualified for the 2026 World Cup.
The Swiss have some serious talent (Granit Xhaka, Johan Manzambi, Remo Freuler), but this is your classic “whole is greater than the sum of its parts” underdog.
Player futures
Golden Boot: Igor Thiago, Brazil (50/1, DraftKings)
It’s been a while since Brazil had a vintage target man leading the line as a striker, but Igor Thiago gives them that option.
A powerhouse in the box and a clinical finisher, Thiago broke out with a 22-goal campaign for Brentwood in 2025-26, and could be a household name by the time this tournament winds down.
There are plenty of attacking options in the Brazilian ranks, but none of them are the bully-in-the-box forward that Thiago is, and that should lead to plenty of playing time for Thiago under Ancelotti, who is always happy to adapt his tactics to give his team the best chance to win.
It also won’t hurt that Brazil should be able to score plenty of goals in the group stage against the likes of Haiti and Scotland.
Golden Ball: Kevin De Bruyne (66/1, bet365)
The Golden Ball is often an award that is doused in sentiment, and that makes De Bruyne a real threat to win it if Belgium goes on a run.
One of many generational talents playing in his final World Cup this summer, De Bruyne is still the key cog in the middle of the field for high-octane Belgium, and would likely be heavily involved if the Red Devils get into the business end of the competition.
If that comes to be, it will be hard for the media to ignore De Bruyne in this award, as he’s been one of the shining lights in the sport for a long time and would be deserving of a massive sendoff.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
