It felt like the opportunity for Felix Auger-Aliassime to win a Grand Slam had come and gone, but things change quickly in tennis, and the Canadian could have his best opportunity in front of him at the French Open.
The No. 4 seed at Roland Garros, Auger-Aliassime won’t have to deal with Jannik Sinner in a potential semifinal, and he wouldn’t stare down Alexander Zverev to the final.
That’s the upshot.
The downside is that the pressure on Auger-Aliassime is now at a new level, as he won’t want to fumble what is a golden opportunity to win a Grand Slam.
The World No. 6 is a -310 favorite over American Brandon Nakashima for Saturday’s headliner.
French Open: Auger-Aliassime vs. Nakashima picks
This is an all-power matchup between two of the best servers on the planet.
Nakashima currently ranks 13th on the ATP Tour in aces and is ninth in first serve point percentage, while Auger-Aliassime is ninth in aces and 11th in winning points on his first serve.
With two dominant servers, it’s no wonder that the Over/Under for this match is set at 38.5 games, which implies we should see some tiebreakers.
That also means the margins for this tilt will be quite thin, and one mistake or meltdown can be the difference between winning this match and going home.
Auger-Aliassime has long been criticized for not handling these moments well, and he’s got a habit of coming up short in Grand Slams, but he does look like a new player since he was eliminated in the first round of the Australian Open.
He will also have the benefit of going up against an opponent who will play into his strengths.
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Like Auger-Aliassime, Nakashima isn’t really built to play long rallies. He wants to get on with it and use his serve to win cheap points. That should be just fine with the Montreal native.
If he was taking on a counter-puncher or a grinder who wants to hang around, you can see how this would go sideways for Auger-Aliassime. But this stylistic matchup should suit him, and he should also benefit from the fact that Nakashima’s last match went nearly five hours.
I wouldn’t be shocked if this is one-way traffic in favor of the favorite.
The Play: Auger-Aliassime to win 3-0 (+184, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
