A little competition in the MMA space is good for everyone.
MVP MMA is the latest promotion to dip its toes in combat sports with a card headlined by Gina Carrano vs. Ronda Rousey.
There have been some fighters who have fallen out of the card, but it’s still a competitive slate loaded with talent, one of the best we’ve ever seen outside of the UFC.
Below are a few bets worth targeting on MVP MMA on Netflix.
Of the 11 fights, nine have props available and eight are expected to end inside the distance.
MVP MMA fight card predictions
Gina Carano vs. Ronda Rousey
Some of the older ladies in the fight game, neither the 44-year-old Carano nor the 39-year-old Rousey has fought this decade, with the former having not fought in the last decade either.
The two have done a bang-up job building this fight, with Rousey’s eyes clearly in the direction of becoming a fight promoter to rival the UFC.
If she wants to do that, she’d be wise to win this early and easily, as Carano hasn’t competed in competitive MMA since 2009.
It doesn’t even look like Carano has been training much; she has had a solid acting career since then with Disney, which ended up in chaos and lawsuits.
Regardless of how you shake it, Rousey should end this fight by submission, as shown by the -200 odds.
Carano wasn’t a good grappler even at her peak, and she’s now much older.
However, the -200 odds are terrible and not worth backing.
If these two fighters aren’t in peak shape, and that is highly likely the case, I like the odds of an extended fight.
Perhaps it doesn’t go the distance (+900 odds), but the fight to start in Round 2 is a fine bet (+100).
I recommend spreading out a unit or two on fight to start Round 2; Over 1.5 rounds; fight to start Rounds 3; 4; 5; and goes the distance, a total of six wagers to break even if the fight does, in fact, start in the second round and the rest being gravy.
THE PLAY: Fight starts Round 2 (+100, FanDuel) | Spread bets on alternate Round Over props
Francis Ngannou vs. Phillipe Lins
Francis Ngannou doesn’t really have any opponents outside of the UFC worth fighting, as shown by his extremely inactive PFL career.
Still, he is a violent and entertaining fighter that MVP is surely thrilled to have on its roster.
Ngannou to win by knockout is -500 here, and I’d be foolish to say this fight ends any other way.
There’s no value in Ngannou winning in Round 1 (-150) despite Lins last fighting in 2024.
Lins has gone to decision in each of his last two fights, so we’d think in theory that the heavyweight knows how to run away when he needs to in order to try and gas Ngannou out.
Remember, this is a five-round fight, not your typical three rounds.
For that reason, I’ll fade Ngannou Round 1 and cover myself by betting on Ngannou winning, and the fight going Over 4.5 minutes at DraftKings (+115).
Getting Ngannou’s massive moneyline -1800 moneyline price down to +115 in exchange for four-and-a-half minutes of fight time is stressful, but fruitful if Lins has any sense in the ring.
THE PLAY: SGP Ngannou wins and Over 4.5 minutes (+115, DraftKings)
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Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry
Nate Diaz opened as a favorite and fell to underdog status in the lead-up to this five-round fight, as many don’t think he is taking the bout seriously.
I don’t think that’s a correct line movement, as Diaz will have Perry beat in grappling and volume on the feet. While Perry is in good shape, he’s not a super technical striker.
Perry hasn’t fought in MMA since a loss to Daniel Rodriguez in 2021 and he even lost to Tim Means.
He may get submitted, but I’ll take Diaz by decision as he’s the more reliable minute winner historically.
THE PLAY: Diaz by decision (+550, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
