In a 162-game season, one night to the next doesn’t present much variation for oddmakers.
It’s why starting pitching is the single most influential variable in baseball betting.
There are a select few arms, however, who can singlehandedly vault their team from underdogs to favorites.
Among that group, even the most casual sports fan wouldn’t be shocked to learn that no one in today’s MLB is more valuable to the market than Pirates ace Paul Skenes.
The reigning NL Cy Young winner is in the midst of his third major-league campaign and already has a resume that most pitchers spend careers chasing.
The Pirates have not made the playoffs since 2015 and haven’t finished above .500 since 2018. Yet, for the hodgepodge of nothingness that Pittsburgh’s front office has put on the field, the Pirates have been priced as underdogs in only 19 of Skenes’ 66 career starts heading into Thursday’s series finale against the Cubs.
DraftKings reported that Skenes has seen the highest handle of action in 2026 over any other pitcher.
BetMGM senior trader Hunter Loden told The Post that of all the variables their trading team considers in pricing, Skenes’ impact is worth at least one run to the run total versus an average pitcher.
The league average for a pitcher’s strikeout prop sits between 4.5 and 5.5. Skenes’ line has been set at 6.5 in all but three games of his 11 starts this season, reaching 7.5 twice. Skenes is off to a “slower” start than his first two years, sporting a 3.00 ERA and a 9.75 K/9 through 60 innings of work, but he’s projected to progress.
Skenes has underperformed per his 2.41 xERA, which is the lowest of his short career. His command remains impeccable, evidenced by an eye-popping 3.9 walk rate — good for the 98th percentile in baseball.
Bettors are still bullish on Skenes; he has garnered the most action on strikeout props over any other pitcher per DraftKings.
Of course, Skenes deals outlier velocity, but unlike most power pitchers that lean on one or two pitches, he offers a seven-pitch arsenal that he uses interchangeably.
He generates a putaway rate of at least 20 percent with five of those options, as he can locate all four corners of the strike zone with both breaking and offspeed pitches.
Skenes, 6-4, has fallen victim to the long ball in his last two starts for losses, though the bigger issue is that it’s been feast or famine with the run support behind him. While the Pirates rank within the top 10 in weighted runs created plus (wRC+), they are hitting a measly .236 mark with runners in scoring position.
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Still, DraftKings’ average moneyline on the Pirates ranges from -151 when Skenes is on the bump to -108 in all other games. The public is willing to pay the premium: Pittsburgh is the eighth-most bet team when he’s starting compared to 18th when he does not.
With Skenes making his 12th start of the year, DraftKings has installed them as -175 favorites over the Cubs, who started the year 27-12.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
