The United States didn’t have its ‘A game’ against Bosnia & Herzegovina, but it was still enough for the Yanks to earn a 2-0 victory, securing a spot in the Round of 16 and setting up a date with Belgium in Seattle on Monday night.
It was the first time in 24 years that the USMNT won a knockout match at the World Cup.
And while there were certainly some pain points in the 2-0 win over Bosnia, the mark of a contender at these international tournaments is that you can win when you’re not at your best. The Americans ticked that box, albeit against a relatively soft opponent.
Belgium will represent a clear step up from what the Stars & Stripes faced against Bosnia & Herzegovina, but the Red Devils have not covered themselves in glory during their run to the Round of 16.
The Belgians were fortunate to get a point in a 1-1 draw against Egypt, even luckier in a nil-nil against Iran, and then finally put the boots to New Zealand, 5-1, to clinch the top spot in Group G.
Instead of building off that momentum in the Round of 32 against Senegal, the Belgians looked completely out of sorts for 85 minutes and were down 2-0 with four minutes of normal time to go. They looked cooked.
Miraculously, Belgium scored twice in three minutes to send the match into extra time, where they were given another gift from the soccer gods when Lamine Camara took down Belgian captain Youri Tielemans inside the box with seconds to go before the game went to a shootout. Tielemans converted the penalty kick, sending the Red Devils to the next round and Senegal on a plane home.
The box score tells the story for this one. The Lions of Teranga created 3.41 expected goals (xG) from open play, while Belgium tallied just 0.72. If you replay this match over 100 times, Senegal probably wins 90.
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If Senegal and Egypt can put Belgium on their heels, you have to like Team USA’s chances of going one step further, especially now that Folarin Balogun’s suspension has been lifted.
Balogun’s presence at the tip of the spear is a massive boost, but it’s the versatility of the American attack that should rule the day against the Red Devils.
The Americans are a real menace on the flanks with Christian Pulisic and Sergino Dest, and the midfield trio of Malik Tillman, Weston McKennie, and Tyler Adams has been massive throughout the tournament so far. The Yanks can beat you in a number of ways, which will give Rudi Garcia headaches when it comes to coming up with a defensive game plan. If you take away Plan A, Team USA can adapt and roll you over with their Plan B.
Belgium’s attack can be a handful, especially if Kevin De Bruyne and Jeremy Doku are at the races, but they’ve looked listless for much of this tournament and have needed moments of magic from past-his-prime striker Romelu Lukaku to save their bacon on several occasions already.
In a role reversal from their 2014 meeting in this same stage, it’s the Americans who have more scoring punch in this matchup, and I like their chances of punishing a very suspect Belgian defense and sending the States into the quarterfinals for the first time in a quarter-century.
Back Team USA to advance (-116, FanDuel), and make some room on your betting card for Pulisic to score 2+ goals at 15/1. He should have plenty of space to operate, as Belgium’s wingers aren’t known for their willingness to help out their fullbacks.
THE PLAYS: Team USA to advance (-116) | Christian Pulisic to score 2+ goals (15/1)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
